What Are the Chances For Trump's Gaza Initiative Will Be Effective?
Hamas's conditional acceptance toward Donald Trump's Gaza deal on Friday was welcomed internationally and is the closest Israel and Hamas have got over the past 24 months to ending the fighting in Gaza.
How Close Is a Deal?
The Palestinian faction's qualified support of the Trump plan marks the nearest negotiators have reached over the last several months toward a full end to the war inside the Gaza Strip. However, they remain far off from a deal.
The US president's multi-point plan to stop the conflict specifies for Hamas free every captive over 72 hours, surrender governing authority to an international authority led by the US president, and disarm. In return, Israel would gradually withdraw its soldiers from the Gaza Strip and return over 1,000 inmates.
The proposal will also mean a surge of relief supplies into Gaza, some areas of which are facing food shortages, and recovery financing to Gaza, that has been nearly completely devastated.
Hamas only agreed to three points: the release of all hostages, the surrendering of control and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. Hamas declared the remaining parts of the agreement would have to be discussed together with additional Palestinian factions, as it is a component of a joint national approach.
In practice, this implies Hamas wants additional talks on the contentious elements of the Trump deal, specifically the request that it disarms, and a solid timetable regarding Israeli troop pullout.
Where and When Will Negotiations Occur?
Negotiators have flown to Cairo to finalize details to narrow the differences between the two sides.
Negotiations will start on Monday and it is anticipated to yield outcomes over the next several days, whether positive or negative.
Trump shared an image of a map showing Gaza on Saturday night depicting the boundary to which Israeli troops should withdraw and said that if Hamas agreed to it, the truce would start immediately. The US president is eager to stop the conflict as it approaches to its two year mark and before the Nobel prize committee announces the recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize on 10 October, which is an extensively reported focus of his.
Benjamin Netanyahu said a deal to secure the return of Israeli captives back home would ideally happen soon.
Which Differences Remain?
Both Hamas and Israel have hedged their positions going into negotiations.
The group has consistently declined to lay down its weapons during previous talks. It has given no indication on if its position has shifted on this, even as it broadly accepts to Trump’s plan, with conditions. The US and Israel have made it clear that there is little wiggle room on the disarmament issue and are determined to bind Hamas through firm wording in any agreement moving forward.
The militant faction also said it accepted handing over power in Gaza to a technocratic governing force, as specified by the Trump plan. However, in its announcement, the militant group specified it would agree to a Gaza-based expert-led administration, not the international body proposed by Trump in the proposal.
Israel has also tried to maintain the issue of its troop withdrawal ambiguous. Just hours after announcing the US proposal in a joint press conference in the US capital last week, Netanyahu published a video reassuring Israelis that troops would stay in most of Gaza.
On Saturday night, Netanyahu again repeated that troops would stay in Gaza, saying that hostages would be returned while the Israel Defense Forces would stay within Gaza's interior.
The prime minister's stance appears to conflict against the requirement in Trump’s plan that Israeli troops completely pull out from the territory. Hamas will demand guarantees that Israeli forces will completely leave and that if Hamas surrenders its arms, Israeli troops will not re-enter Gaza.
Mediators must bridge these differences, securing firm, unambiguous terms regarding giving up weapons from the group. They must also show to the faction that the Israeli government will truly pull out from Gaza and that there will be international guarantees that will force the Israeli state to comply with the conditions of the deal.
The differences could be reconciled, and the United States will certainly pressure both parties to achieve an agreement. Nevertheless, negotiations have got close to a deal previously abruptly failing multiple times over the last 24 months, leaving both parties wary of celebrating before pen is on paper.